Race, poverty and unemployment as quantitative predictors of voter turnout in St. Louis amidst COVID-19 and a racial justice movement

PurposeThe 2020 election season brought with it a global public health pandemic and a reenergized racial justice movement. Given the social context of the intertwined pandemics of COVID-19 and racialized violence, do the traditional predictors of voter turnout – race, poverty rates and unemployment rates – remain significant?Design/methodology/approachUsing county-level, publicly available data from twelve Midwest states with similar demographic and cultural characteristics, voter turnout in St. Louis City and St. Louis County were predicted using race, poverty rates and unemployment rates.FindingsFindings demonstrate that despite high concentration of poverty rates and above average percentages of Black residents, voter turnout was significantly higher than predicted. Additionally, findings contradict previous studies that found higher unemployment rates resulted in higher voter participation rates.Originality/valueThis study suggests that the threat of COVID-19 and fear of an increase in police violence may have introduced physical risk as a new theoretical component to rational choice theory for the general election in 2020.

Covid-19 and the 2020 presidential election

Whether deserved on not, US Presidents often receive the blame or the credit for the nature of the economy and direction of the country. Therefore, the status of the economy and the country in an election year can be a very important factor in election success for an incumbent President (or his party if an incumbent is not running). This is especially true in ‘battleground states' due to the presence of the Electoral College system where Presidential candidates need only win different combinations of states in order to become President. However, the 2020 Presidential election was vastly different from past election cycles in that an additional variable, COVID-19, was added to the decision calculus of voters. Eventually, the 2020 election came down to the extremely slim margins in three states (Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin) and thin margins in two others (Pennsylvania and Michigan). This paper shows that deaths from COVID-19 at the county level played a small role in demotivating voters to turnout in 2020 to cast their vote for Joe Biden as President. In other words, without Covid-19, President Trump's losses within these five states would have been even larger.

Complementary or Competing Frames? The Impact of Economic and Public Health Messages on COVID-19 Attitudes

The American reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic is polarized, with conservatives often less willing to engage in risk-mitigation strategies such as mask-wearing and vaccination. COVID-19 narratives are also polarized, as some conservative elites focus on the economy over public health. In this registered report, we test whether combining economic and public health messages can persuade individuals to increase support for COVID-19 risk mitigation. We present preliminary evidence that the combination of messages is complementary, rather than competing or polarizing. When given a message emphasizing COVID-19's negative health and economic effects in a pilot study, conservatives increased their support for a broad range of risk-mitigation strategies, while liberals maintained high levels of support. A preregistered larger-n follow-up study, however, failed to replicate this effect. While complementary frames may be a promising way to persuade voters on some issues, they may also struggle to overcome high levels of existing polarization.

THE US‑MEXICAN BORDER AND CONTEMPORARY AMERICAN IMMIGRATION POLICY

There have been several periods in American history that are referred to as turbulent times. They were characterized by a wide range of changes that happened to respond to issues that brought anxiety, threat, discontent, or trouble. Donald Trump's presidency and the Covid-19 pandemic significantly influenced American immigration policy and the lives of immigrants. The present article pays special attention to the Mexican-American border. This area plays a crucial role in migration studies focusing on the Americas for at least two reasons: international relations between Mexico (and the Latin American region) and the United States, and homeland security issues related to irregular and regular migrant flows. This study aims to determine what changes have been implemented in border policy, investigate why they occurred, and finally, discuss their results. The article analyzes the most challenging issues characteristic of the situation of unaccompanied minor migrants, the concept of Trump's wall or the 'remain in Mexico' program. The US-Mexican border studies have played a crucial role in research dedicated to American immigration policy since its inception. Today, it is also an area of concern and special attention is paid to this region due to the dynamics of processes taking place at the border. The work presented here discusses and highlights the most turbulent issues that echoed not only in the United States but also worldwide.

Coronavirus Pandemic Response and Voter Choice: Evidence from Serbia and Croatia

Does the public perception of governments’ coronavirus pandemic responses actually make a difference to their electoral fortunes? In this research note, we answer that question by presenting the preliminary results of a survey of more than 3,000 voters in Croatia and Serbia conducted on a dedicated mobile app and web platform directly preceding parliamentary elections that took place in these two countries during the summer of 2020. This survey was part of our larger project tracking political competition, public discourse, and conspiracy theories in Southeast Europe during the coronavirus pandemic. The preliminary findings presented in this research note demonstrate Croatian and Serbian voters were rationally retrospective and rewarded parties in power based on evaluations of their crisis management performance. We also find evidence of voters who have personally witnessed the health consequences of the coronavirus being more likely to support the parties in power. We believe this is evidence of the coronavirus pandemic increasing affected citizens’ expectations of and trust in national governments where those governments respond strongly to the pandemic’s first wave, as was the case in both Croatia and Serbia.

Electing the Mayors in Romania's Big Cities in 2020: Voter Turnout, Legislative Changes, and the COVID-19 Pandemic

Local elections have been theorized by many scholars as lower rank or second-order national elections: they are less important, less relevant, and just not as interesting as national elections. In Romania, turnout in local elections was, until the mid-2000s, quite high, even if lower than in parliamentary elections. Since 2008, however, turnout in local elections has been consistently higher than in parliamentary elections. The electoral reform that started in 2011 had, over time, a negative influence on the electoral process in the local elections. In this paper, we argue that the transition from the election of mayors using a majority electoral system in two rounds to a single round has contributed to the decline of citizens' interest in local elections, exerting a detrimental influence on the quality of political representation in general. Despite the arguments used by many of the supporters of this electoral reform, that electing the mayors in just one round will generate an increase in turnout because the competition will be fiercer, the effect was the opposite. The year 2020 marked a historic low in terms of turnout in local elections in Romania. Analyzing the official electoral data at county level and for each county capital, we will show that the health crisis generated by the COVID-19 pandemic had a minor influence on voting turnout. Instead, the specifics of the electoral law meant that, in the vast majority of county capitals, the turnout was significantly lower that the county average and the mayor was elected without reaching 50% of the votes (in many cases, the winning candidate failed to obtain more than 30% of the valid votes cast), which poses a major problem regarding the representativeness of elected mayors, as well as the stability and political balance within local political institutions.

Reflections On COVID-19: Whiplash! Volunteering at the Poils During a Pandemic (Part 2)

Family and consumer sciences (FCS) has been built on a developmental model recognizing that different talents come together in support of families and the greater community. [...]it was an opportunity to serve and practice what has been learned. The day shift ran from 6:30 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. Before the polls opened, poll workers received final instructions, ran a check to ensure the tabulator was at zero, put the appropriate seals and locks where required, and determined how to manage the absentee ballots. Two poll workers added plastic gloves to their attire and went outdoors with a ballot and supplies.

Reflections On COVID-19: Whiplash! Volunteering at the Polls During a Pandemic

Serving as a poll worker is just one of those volunteer responsibilities I have long been prepared to assume. Since returning to the community in which I grew up, I served 10 years on the County Board of Supervisors and now serve on committees as a community member. [...]as April drew near, it had become a two-person race because one candidate seemed to be moving toward having the needed delegates. [...]interest in that election was waning. The Village Director of Public Works was concerned about setting up the polling place so that both the voters and poll workers would be safe. The Presidential election finds a significant number of residents registering onsite because for some individuals, it is the only election in which they exercise their responsibility to vote over a 4-year period.

Women, Do We Support One Another? Voting Behavior of Indonesian Female College Students for a Female Candidate amidst Covid-19 Pandemic

This study seeks to analyze and describe the voting behavior of female college students for a female candidate in Indonesia at Banjarmasin Mayoral Election in 2020 during the Covid-19 pandemic. Thus, political campaigns were mainly switched to communication and information technology with a lack of mass gatherings and direct political campaigns due to Covid-19 health protocols. In a predominantly Muslim and highly patriarchal society, this is also the second time this province to have a female candidate for this position and the first time for this city. Amidst the negative stereotypes of a female candidate and the attacks from the opponents, this female candidate managed to gain second place. Disputes emerged, and the court decided to hold re-election in three sub-districts. The disputes and the campaign dynamics show how this society at large perceives a female candidate. This study elaborates on the possible affecting factors in voting behavior, i.e., religious interpretation, ethnicity, gender, the role of media, perceptions of voters related to candidate's age and programs, political party affiliation, the role of family, and peers. This research method combines quantitative and qualitative methods with the focus on the qualitative method which is based on interviews and literature analysis. This study collected the data based on online surveys and interviews of Lambung Mangkurat University students, Banjarmasin, South Kalimantan, Indonesia, where the election was held. The selection for college student respondents aims to focus on young, educated voters and control the variables of education, age, and socioeconomic factors of voters or the effects of social class, which are also often, considered affecting variables in voting behavior. Therefore the factors of education, age, and socioeconomic variables are not the focus of analysis. Hence, this study may be transferable to analyze the voting behavior of young, educated, and no-income group which makes up a significant percentage of Indonesian voters.

США: экономика и социальная структура перед сменой эпох

Dramas of a unique pandemic of COVID-19, an unparalleled sharp recession and critically important presidential elections have put the difficult choices for the American society in 2020. Socio-economic development of the U.S. in XXI century has come through the series of crises, which had major impacts on the global development. The country has retained the leadership in the developed world by general economic might, innovations and dynamics of upturns. In the last three decades the demographics of the U.S. population have experienced the substantial changes, notably the number of citizens of Asian origin and Hispanic group have increased. The latter has surpassed the Afro-American group by a number of families and by an average income per family. Overall growth of income in the country has not eliminated large income disparities among social strata. Statistics of tax declarations indicate the inequality by social groups and by race. These disparities have probably played an important role in 2020 recession and pandemic development. As far as electoral behavior is concerned, the inequality factor is even more visible.Alternate :Драма уникальной пандемии, небывало острой рецессии и критически важных президентских выборов поставила общество США в 2020 г. перед трудным выбором. В социально-экономическом развитии США в XXI в. произошла серия потрясений, которые оказали огромное влияние на мировое развитие. Страна сохранила положение лидера среди развитых стран по совокупности экономической мощи, инновационному развитию, динамичности подъемов. В последние три десятилетия в США значительно изменился демографический состав населения в пользу граждан азиатского происхождения и испаноязычной группы, которая как по своей численности, так и уровню доходов на семью обогнала афроамериканскую. Общий рост благосостояния не ликвидировал большие диспаритеты по доходам между слоями общества. Статистика налоговых деклараций указывает на неравенство семей как социальное, так и по расовому признаку. По-видимому, оно сыграло значительную роль в 2020 г. и в рецессии, и в пандемии. А в электоральном поведении фактор неравенства виден еще резче.

The Association Between COVID-19 Mortality And The County-Level Partisan Divide In The United States

Partisan differences in attitudes toward the COVID-19 pandemic and toward the appropriateness of local policies requiring masks, social distancing, and vaccines are apparent in the United states. Previous research suggests that areas with a higher Republican vote share may experience more COVID-19 mortality, potentially as a consequence of these differences. In this observational study that captured data from a majority of Us counties, we compared the number of COVID-19 deaths through October 31, 2021, among counties with differing levels of Republican vote share, using 2020 presidential election returns to characterize county political affiliation. Our analyses controlled for demographic characteristics and social determinants likely to influence COVID-19 transmission and outcomes using state fixed effects. We found a positive dose-response relationship between county-level Republican vote share and county-level COVID-19 mortality. Majority Republican counties experienced 72.9 additional deaths per 100,000 people relative to majority Democratic counties during the study period, and COVID-19 vaccine uptake explains approximately 10 percent of the difference. Our findings suggest that county-level voting behavior may act as a proxy for compliance with and support of public health measures that would protect residents from COVID-19.

Mass casualty event scenarios and political shifts: 2020 election outcomes and the U.S. COVID-19 pandemic

COVID-19 models indicate a mass casualty event may potentially occur in the United States. Among numerous social and economic changes, the potential to reshape the political landscape exists. The theoretical perspective of politics-administration dichotomy is used to examine the rhetoric, power, and authority of public health messages during the pandemic. This study considers political shifts using state-level data on population, historical voter turnout, and projected COVID-19 cases number coupled with national-level data on voter participation by age group and COVID-19 fatality rates. Developing a formula to calculate these data, we project the extent to which the number of voters from each party could diminish. The analysis shows the potential for significant political changes due to the disproportionate loss of older voters in key swing states in the months leading to the 2020 presidential election.

GEOPOLITIK MELAKA DAN PILIHAN POLITIK PENGUNDI DALAM PILIHAN RAYA DUN MELAKA 2021

Politik Negeri Melaka terkenal sebagai kubu kuat BN sejak sebelum merdeka hingga PRU 2013. Namun pada PRU 2018, Melaka jatuh kepada parti pembangkang iaitu PH. 22 bulan selepas PH memerintah Melaka maka jatuh pula Kerajaan PH dan ditubuhkan Kerajaan BN+PN. Kemudian pada 4 Oktober 2021, empat orang ADUN kerajaan menarik sokongan mereka dan menyatakan sokongan untuk membentuk Kerajaan baharu yang diterajui PH. Namun pada 5 Oktober 2021, Yang Dipertua Negeri Melaka pula membubarkan DUN untuk diadakan satu pilihan raya baharu. Pilihan raya baharu tersebut diadakan dan akhirnya BN menang dengan majoriti dua pertiga. Keputusan pilihan raya tersebut menghasilkan pola pengundian yang menarik untuk dikaji hasil daripada keputusan politik pengundi Melaka. Justeru adalah menjadi tujuan penulisan artikel ini untuk menganalisis geopolitik Melaka dan pilihan politik pengundi dalam PRU DUN Melaka 2021. Berdasarkan analisis data keputusan PRU DUN Melaka 2021, pemerhatian di lapangan dan analisis sumber sekunder, dapatan kajian menunjukkan bahawa kemenangan BN, kekalahan PH dan sokongan pengundi yang signifikan kepada PN dalam pilihan raya menghasilkan landskap politik yang menarik untuk dikaji. Pilihan raya tersebut menunjukkan bahawa peratus keluar mengundi jatuh berbanding PRU 2018 kerana wabak pandemik COVID-19, rakyat bosan dengan aktiviti politiking ahli politik yang tidak berkesudahan dan tiada manfaat bagi mereka untuk turun mengundi. Oleh itu, perubahan pola sokongan pengundi dan kejatuhan peratus keluar mengundi tersebut menunjukkan trend luar biasa yang menarik untuk dianalisis oleh pengkaji politik dan diambil pengajaran oleh pimpinan politik menuju pilihan raya umum akan datang.Alternate :Melaka State politics is known as a stronghold of BN since before independence until the 2013 GE. However, in the 2018 GE, Melaka fell to the opposition party, PH. 22 months after PH ruled Melaka, the PH Government fell and the BN+PN Government was formed. Then on October 4, 2021, four government assemblymen withdrew their support and expressed support to form a new PH-led Government. However, on October 5, 2021, the Governor of Melaka dissolved the state legislative assembly to hold a new election. The new election was held and in the end BN won with a two-thirds majority. The election results produced an interesting voting pattern to study as a result of the political decisions of the voters of Melaka. Therefore, the purpose of writing this article is to analyze the geopolitics of Melaka and the political choices of voters in the Melaka 2021 state election. Based on data analysis of the Melaka state 2021 GE results, field observations and analysis of secondary sources, the findings of the study show that the victory of BN, the defeat of PH and significant turnout to PN in elections produces an interesting political landscape to study. The election showed that the turnout fell compared to the 2018 GE due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the people were tired of the endless politicking activities of politicians and there was no benefit for them to go to the polls. Thus, the change in voter support patterns and the fall in the turnout show an unusual trend that is interesting for analysis by political researchers and lessons learned by political leaders towards the next general election.

Los efectos de la pandemia en el sistema democrático peruano: la organización de las Elecciones Bicentenario

Una de las características principales de la democracia es la celebración de elecciones competitivas y transparentes. Para ello, la administración electoral planifica y ejecuta estrategias, además de buenas prácticas que permitan a las y los ciudadanos ejercer su derecho al sufragio en comicios libres, seguros y justos. A inicios de 2020, la propagación y el contagio de la COVID-19 en diferentes países del mundo alteraron no solo patrones de conducta de la ciudadanía sino también la vida democrática. En algunos casos, la pandemia produjo la suspensión o retraso de las elecciones nacionales, municipales y/o consultas populares, así como la ejecución de estos procesos mediante la aplicación de protocolos sanitarios. Perú, en 2021, llevó a cabo dos jornadas electorales nacionales para elegir los cargos de presidencia, vicepresidencias, Congreso de la República y Parlamento Andino. En ambos casos, la Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales (ONPE) dispuso la aplicación de protocolos y otras medidas para el desarrollo de estos comicios. Así, el accionar de la ONPE buscaba resolver dos preocupaciones generalizadas: la posibilidad de una menor participación electoral y el aumento del número de contagios. De esta manera, este artículo pretende presentar las actividades y buenas prácticas desarrolladas por esta institución, en el marco de las Elecciones Bicentenario, frente a la mencionada pandemia y cómo estas afectaron la participación electoral y el número de casos detectados con COVID-19. Estos dos indicadores servirán para demostrar la efectividad de los protocolos implementados.Alternate :One of the main characteristics of democracy is the holding of competitive and transparent elections. To this end, the electoral administration plans and executes strategies and practices that allow citizens to exercise their right to vote in free, secure, and fair elections. At the beginning of 2020, the spread and contagion of COVID-19 in different countries of the world altered the behavioral patterns of citizens and democratic life itself. In some cases, the pandemic led to the suspension or delay of national, municipal elections or popular consultations or the execution of these processes through the application of sanitary protocols. Peru held two election days in 2021, in which Peruvians elected their president, vice presidents, Congress representatives, and Andean Parliament members. In both cases, the National Office of Electoral Processes (ONPE) implemented protocols and other measures to ensure safe elections. Thus, the actions of the ONPE sought to address two widespread concerns: the possibility of lower voter turnout and the increase in the number of contagions. Therefore, this article aims to present the activities and good practices developed by ONPE in the Bicentennial Elections and how they affected electoral participation and the number of COVID-19 cases detected afterwards. These two indicators will serve to demonstrate the effectiveness of protocols and measures implemented.

POLITICAL CHANGES IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE IN THE CONTEXT OF THE GLOBAL REGRESSION OF DEMOCRACY

The article describes political changes in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe that are members of the European Union against the background of the global condition of democracy. The frame of reference are selected results of the Economist Democracy Index 2020 report examining the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on political changes in the world, considering some conclusions from the previous publications of the ranking. The theoretical premises and methodology of the Democracy Index are presented, including the typology of political systems as a tool for classifying the countries covered by the study into one of the four types of the systems compared: full democracy, flawed democracy, hybrid regime and authoritarian regime. The strengths and weaknesses of the Democracy Index have characterized as well as the symptoms of the global decline of democracy. Changes in the values of the Index indicators in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe between 2006 and 2020 are analysed. The summary shows the ambivalence of the directions of political changes in the region.